Bitcoin market holds breath for news about Silk Road auction

Over the weekend, speculation has been rampant about the results of the U.S. Marshal Service’s auction of nearly 30,000 bitcoin. Theories about the price point of each 3,000 BTC block, the intentions and identities of the bidder and the ultimate impact of the sale have flooded Twitter, Reddit, Bitcoin Talk and other popular bitcoin-discussion havens. Although the price has climbed considerably since Wednesday of last week, with a smaller spike of roughly $30 this morning, the overall mood in trading circles seems to be tentative anticipation of a huge amount of movement once solid information about the auction reaches street level.

The exact direction of that movement is anyone’s guess, although the prevailing theory seems to be that very large players likely bid well above the current spot price in an attempt to gain a large holding of coins without significantly moving the market. SecondMarket CEO Barry Silbert hinted that his company’s buyers’ syndicate had received a huge amount of interest, with 186 bids placed for 48,013 BTC — half-again as many coins as are available. Such a high level of interest suggests that demand for the coins will be at least near market value.

The U.S. Marshals Service will notify winning bidders by 5 p.m. EST today, although the news of winning bids may well be released before that deadline. It’s not known if any participant will actually reveal their bid amounts. Suspicion is high, however, that losing bidders will move to snap up BTC as soon as the results are announced, as those parties at least know the amount of their own losing bids. Should that number be above current spot price, those parties have strong incentive to snap up closely priced BTC before news of the winning bid amount leaks onto the market.