Already a noted critic, when bitcoin prices crashed from record highs in December, Williams wrote a prediction piece for Business Insider claiming bitcoin was doomed. In it, he wrote: “I predict that Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014, single digit pricing reflecting its option value as a pure commodity play.”
The end of first half of 2014 is only a few weeks away, and while bitcoin has taken some huge hits in the last six months, the value has never even approached double digits. In fact, the low point of the last few months was a brief dip to $360, or 36 times higher than Williams’ prediction. At the moment, bitcoin is trading for roughly half of its all-time high, and entering into the third week of a rally. It appears that Williams’ $10 prediction is unlikely to materialize.
Speaking to CoinDesk, however, Williams claims his fundamental assertion is true, even if the specifics aren’t accurate.
I continue to stick to my 2013 prediction that bitcoin is grossly overpriced and the price will eventually adjust dramatically downward as the priced-for-perfection expectations set by bitcoin promoters cannot be met. … Will this bubble be completely deflated in the next six months to a year? Time will tell. In January 2013 it was worth only $13. If the question is, ‘Do I still see bitcoin dropping to these much lower levels in the future?’ The answer is yes.”
Not surprisingly, there have been many threads on popular bitcoin forums mocking Williams’ prediction and views. There’s even Professor Bitcoin Countdown to $10 page dedicated to highlighting his extremely specific and increasingly unlikely prediction. That said, his concerns about bitcoin’s lack of fundamental structure and its vulnerability to market whims, the original basis for his prediction, are worth at least considering as bitcoin speculation likely begins in earnest in the second half of 2014.